Election 2024: Five things we learned from the first day of the counts

The purpose of elections is for the country to choose its leaders. It’s clear that Ireland will be led for the next few years by a coalition based on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael again. Both parties will gain seats in an enlarged Dáil, with Fianna Fáil projected to be the largest party in both share of the vote and Dáil seats – possibly by a margin of several seats. But it’s too early to say how many. Micheál Martin’s party is expected to be in the mid-40s, Simon Harris’s around the 40-mark. Those numbers won’t be finalised until the last counts finish. But the outcome of the election is already clear.
The Greens may not actually lose all their seats; there are hopes that they might cling on to one. Either way, it’s the end of the party as a serious player in Irish politics for now. At a time when the effects of climate change are increasingly visible around the world, the party most associated with climate action has been decimated by Irish voters. The Greens knew that this was a possibility when they negotiated a programme for government with muscular climate measures and got stuck into several ministries, often doing unpopular things. After all, it happened to them before. But it’s still a pretty cruel blow. Politics is a tough business.
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Sinn Féin’s performatively ecstatic celebrations may well be genuine – after all, the party has staged a dramatic recovery after disastrous local and European elections in May and several months of internal scandal and controversy. If you offered them 19 per cent of the vote at the start of the campaign they would probably have taken your hand off for it. Mary Lou McDonald had a barnstorming campaign. But it couldn’t hide strategic and structural problems and the fact is the party has lost a significant share of its vote since the last election, when it worn 24.5 per cent. And last year, the party was polling in the mid-30s and considered a shoo-in for government. Now it is facing another five years in opposition.
The count is continuing in Dublin Central where Gerard “the Monk” Hutch, a gangland criminal though one with deep roots in his community, is edging towards a seat. It’s hard to know what to think about that. Except that it probably says a few things that do not reflect well on successive governments, the city authorities, the gardaí – and some of the voters of Dublin Central.
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There is a massive generational divide in Irish politics. On party choice, preferred government, attitude to issues and perception of politicians, younger people are deeply sceptical about the established parties and are seeking an alternative – in some cases, any alternative. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will return to power backed largely by older voters and opposed by younger voters. The housing issue isn’t the only thing going on here, but it is at the heart of it. Unless the next government makes significant progress on addressing the housing crisis, and finds homes for younger voters, it’s hard to see them turning around the antipathy of younger voters.